There has been a lot out this week about Cyber Monday. Comscore says spending was up 5%. The NRF says traffic is up 8% (though Hitwise seems to be saying traffic was down). Coremetrics says sales are up 13.7%.

At ForeSee Results, we’re feeling a little cautious about the sales forecasts, which range from NRF’s prediction of a 3% increase to Forrester’s prediction of an 8% increase year-over-year.

Why?

When measured using the methodology of the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), satisfaction has been proven to predict future sales and even stock prices. Using the ACSI methodology, our annual holiday benchmark of more than 350,000 shoppers to more than 110 retail websites during the week of Thanksgiving and on Cyber Monday shows some cause for concern. On Cyber Monday, shopper satisfaction was at its lowest levels in four years. Our benchmarks for likelihood to buy online and offline were at their lowest levels in four years.

There’s a bright spot though, and it could be the bright spot that keeps this holiday season merry for retailers. Although overall shopper satisfaction was down, BUYER satisfaction was actually up. In fact, buyer satisfaction was on Cyber Monday was at its highest levels in the four years that ForeSee Results has measured it, meaning that those who actually purchased online on Cyber Monday were happier than they’ve ever been.

Satisfying customers is critical to success, but during a busy holiday season when customer acquisition is at its peak, browsers must be satisfied as well.

Our prediction is that the websites with the highest online customer satisfaction will see the biggest sales increases and could carry the industry. What’s your prediction?

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