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Is J. Crew's "Obama Effect" an Urban Myth?


Lately, we’ve been using several great examples of how online trends develop quickly and then diminish just as fast, requiring e-commerce retailers and website operators to have the tools to both identify and act upon those trends in minutes, not weeks. You can watch our CEO, Brian Kelly, talk about some of these trends in this short video.

One of the examples that Brian covers is the J. Crew / Michelle Obama story, where the First Lady wore a J. Crew outfit on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, and then sales exploded. It’s a great example of how a trend can come out of nowhere, and how companies need to quickly react. And, it’s such a good example that it was covered by US News, Time, The NY Daily News, and The Huffington Post, among others.

But, a recent post in Slate, titled “There Is No Michelle Effect,” asserts that J. Crew did not benefit at all from the Michelle Obama connection, and that JP Morgan listed the “Michelle Obama Bounce” as one of the big myths of the year, right up there with the Easter Bunny! They go on to note that J. Crew’s CEO even mentioned Mrs. Obama in a November earnings call, saying that she had no effect on same store sales.

First, I should mention that November was waaaay before Mrs. Obama’s Jay Leno appearance, and even several months prior to the Obama children wearing J. Crew at the inauguration. But, let’s not lose focus. The focus should be on J. Crew’s ability to quickly understand, exploit, or debunk any perceived trend.

Was there a bounce and they missed it? Did they have the behavioral analytics in place to see the effect in the days after the Jay Leno appearance? Or, did they quickly jump on their online and POS data and see that there really was not a material jump in sales?

The point is that companies need the ability to quickly identify potential trends, then either quickly convert them into more traffic, more dollars, and more profits, or quickly determine that there is no monetizable trend and move on.

In either case, companies can no longer afford to wait weeks or even days for their analysis. In today’s world, you need analytics that can give you answers, actionable patterns, and decisions in minutes.


To learn more about Quantivo, visit our resources page here.

Webinar: Finding Value in Your Omniture Data

Are you frustrated by the lack of real analytics in your so-called web analytics solution?

This Wednesday, May 13, we’re sponsoring a web meeting that can help you understand the difference between web reports and statistics and real web analytics. While most web analytics tools are great at logging visitors, clickstreams, and downloads, you’re looking for more insightful nuggets that will help you make truly data-based decisions. This webinar will show you how to get those actionable insights.

Learn more and register here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/555399257

And please give us your comments, both before and after this webinar.


Join the eMetrics San Jose TwitterFest

I’m assuming that most of you will not be at the eMetrics event next week in San Jose, CA. That’s not to say that you don’t want to go, but just that the realities of work and budgets and priorities may prevent you from attending. And, given that there are tens of thousands of readers of this blog and only about a thousand eMetrics attendees, well, even I can do that math!
To help all of those unable to attend, and even those in attendance who can’t possibly catch every session, Quantivo is promoting a TwitterFest for the San Jose show this year. Basically, we just want to encourage everyone at the event, interested in the event, or interested in web analytics and online marketing to use the #emetrics hashtag with every related tweet.

That way, everyone across the globe can easily share in the knowledge being presented at eMetrics, and even join in the conversation. We’ve even set up a dedicated page, here, that auto-updates so that you can watch the conversations in real-time.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments, and be sure to check the #emetrics feed next week. Better yet, you can follow me at @jrushin and follow our company at @Quantivo. We’ll both be tweeting our hearts out next week!

After the event, I’ll pull out some of the more enlightened tweets and share them with you all here.

See you in the Twitterverse!

Analyzing Web Data in Business Time

“Business time” means getting the right information quickly enough to add value now. On the web, data from last quarter is a lifetime ago with respect to visitor behavior. So, companies need to get their hands on key behavior patterns now, even at the deepest levels. They need to answer questions like:

  • What are the key differences between first time and repeat visitors?
  • What are the characteristics of high-volume visitors?
  • What’s the difference between urban vs. rural visitors? In California vs. Pennsylvania? At night vs. the afternoon?

Having access to online data is one thing – and everyone has it via their existing web analytics tool. However, having the ability to find patterns in visitor behavior, uncover novel and unforeseen segmentations, and do it across any combination of attributes, over tens (or hundreds!) of millions of rows of clickstream data, and do it before you go to lunch is another thing.

Here’s a great article on how you can answer these questions in “business time,” giving you what you need to make an impact today vs. giving up on the time or hassle of trying to do it with your current tools. The time it takes to get such value today is causing you to avoid asking the far more difficult questions – and timely answers to those questions could make a real difference to getting, keeping, and growing your visitors, transactions, and revenues!

Are You Going to eMetrics San Jose 2009?

The eMetrics team is putting together a great agenda for this year’s eMetrics Marketing Optimization Summit in San Jose, May 4-7, 2009. You can get full details here, but some of the sessions that jump out as “can’t miss” are:
  • “Measuring the Success of a Movement – BarackObama.com” keynote by Mark Skidmore from Blue State Digital
  • “Web 2.0 – Metrics in a Post Page Impression World” by Deepak Nadig of eBay
  • “Metrics for Pulling the Customer Through the Purchase Cycle” by Chris Daniels of Stubhub
  • “Competing on Web Analytics” by Eric Peterson of Web Analytics Demystified
  • And, of course, Quantivo speaking at the Monday Symposium!
I’ll be on-site staffing the Quantivo booth in the Newcomers Pavilion at eMetrics. We’re giving away an Amazon Kindle e-book, so please stop by, say hello, and register to win.

We’re also passing out a discount code for 12% off of your eMetrics San Jose registration – just use QUANTIVO12 as the promo code when registering.

Add some comments to this post, let us know which sessions you’re interested in attending, and why you’re attending (or wish you were attending) the show!

Finding Valuable Patterns Across Multiple Web Events

Today Quantivo announced an exciting extension to our solution that enables the interactive discovery of behavioral patterns that span multiple web events. With traditional web analytics solutions, this is an extremely difficult and time-consuming endeavor, requiring some serious heavy lifting on the back end – both hardware and query creation. For more details, you can view our quick video overview and product demo, or read our announcement.

With this new ability, you can now quickly understand of how visitors respond over multiple visits, over varied content, and across any time span. Here are just a few examples of where this new value can be applied:

  • Understand which combination of online offers increase conversion rates. For example, analysts at an e-commerce website are identifying which offers to present to which customers over one or more visits to make them more likely to purchase.
  • Identify content affinities over multiple page views or multiple visits.
  • Recognize the sequence of events that lead to and follow the purchase of specific items.
  • Quantify both the direct and indirect lift generated by multiple promotions.

Check our video for more details, and be sure to let us know what you think with a comment below or an email to info@quantivo.com.

Using Behavioral Analytics to Understand Web Traffic

Standard web analytic reports provide ample information about past performance: page views, click-throughs, time on site, etc. While this information is critical for reporting on the areas and metrics to which you should paying attention, behavioral analytics can help give you guidance on what to do next.

We’ve just written a new white paper (download here) explaining how behavioral analytics can dig into your web analytics data to uncover how visitors truly interact with your website.

But, you’re probably asking, “What is behavioral analytics and why can’t my current web analytics tool deliver the same info?

Behavioral analytics refers to the ability to uncover patterns of behavior in interaction data, uncovering clusters of people that demonstrate a propensity to go through similar sequences of actions, such as clicks on web pages, online or offline purchases, responses to marketing offers, etc. The payoff from understanding these behavioral patterns is huge: you can use this insight to optimize your site, influence people’s behavior, and ultimately drive actions that you care about – clicks, page views, purchases, etc.

The white paper explains how behavioral analytics helps you identify the content that visitors will look at next, ways to increase transactions, attributes that indicate likely-to-return visitors, factors that make visitors click on ads, and more.

You can download the paper here. Once you do, we’d like to know what you think. Comment on this blog posting, or email us at info@quantivo.com, and let us know!